Do you want to reach net zero?

Under the EU Emissions Trading System, every tonne you emit costs one allowance. Here is what that costs today, which dates are coming, what just changed, and whether capturing your CO₂ would pay for itself.

Run the capture calculator Upcoming ETS dates →

EU allowance (EUA), front-December, 15 Oct 2026 –

per tonne CO₂––

Next key date––

EU target for 2040−90%net emissions compared with 1990

Iceland case, ISAL + Carbfix245,000 t CO₂/yrcould be avoided, modelled

The road to net zero

Cut at the source first. Capture and removals are for what is left.

Measure

Count before you act.

Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions
ETS: verified report by 31 March
Split process CO₂ from fuel CO₂

Reduce

Efficiency and clean energy.

Heat recovery and efficiency
Electrify heat with renewables
Change processes and materials

Capture and store

For process emissions clean power cannot remove, such as anode CO₂ in aluminium.

Capture at the stack
Mineralise in basalt
Stored tonnes need no allowances

Remove the rest

Certified removals for residual emissions.

Direct air capture, bioenergy with CCS
EU certification (CRCF)
Proposed in the ETS from 2031

Manage the cost

Plan for an uncertain price.

Test against price scenarios
Fix part of the cost with futures
Contracts for difference, EU grants

Carbon price

Daily front-December EUA futures, 2018 to 15 October 2026. Switch to 2026 euros to remove inflation.

Source: Ember Carbon Price Viewer (data from Montel). Real prices deflated with the euro-area HICP (Eurostat).

Futures curve Snapshot, unverified

ICE Endex December contracts, settlements on 16 Oct 2026, copied by hand from Barchart and not checked against ICE. A futures price is today's price for later delivery, not a forecast.

By year, nominal €/t

Year	Low	High	Mean	In year

ETS calendar

Compliance deadlines, adopted changes and proposals for EU and EEA companies. Proposals can still change.

What changed

Recent EU carbon-market decisions, newest first.

Does capture pay?

Each tonne captured and permanently stored saves allowances. Compare that saving with the cost of capture, transport and storage.

Start from

CO₂ captured per year (tonnes)

EUA price

Capture cost, incl. capital

Storage fee

Transport to storage

Share of tonnes that saves an allowance

Plant life

Real discount rate

Margin per tonne captured –

–

Break-even EUA price–

Max capture cost–

Result per year–

Over plant life, discounted–

Constant real prices. Capture cost per tonne captured includes capital recovery, energy and maintenance. A screening tool, not an investment appraisal. Margin = α·P − c − τ − k, from the ISAL–Carbfix study.

ISAL, Straumsvík

Capture at the aluminium smelter with Carbfix storage in basalt. A hypothetical scenario from our Reykjavík University report, November 2026.

Map of south-west Iceland showing the ISAL smelter in Straumsvík, the Coda Terminal proposal, Hellisheiði Power Station and Þorlákshöfn — Coastline: GSHHG (Wessel and Smith, 1996). Proposed sites are not permitted injection sites. Map by the authors.

Aluminium, 2025202,500 t

CO₂ captured247,113 t/yr

Net avoided78.9%of ISAL's ETS emissions

Over 20 years4.89 Mt

Break-even EUA€132/tat €100/t capture

Capture budget today≈ €58/tat €87 EUA

Net CO₂ avoided per tonne captured, operational screening LCA

Waste heat (if available)99.8%

Electric boiler99.0%

Oil boiler (combustion only)70.2%

Operational emissions only; construction, wells and solvent not included. Electricity at 7.6 g CO₂e/kWh (Landsvirkjun, generation and construction, H1 2026).

At today's carbon price, capture at ISAL pays only if it costs less than about €58 per tonne. A carbon contract for difference, EU investment grants and shared storage near the smelter could close the gap.